עקרון: Month 1 rewards work. Month 3 = fatigue. System predicts exact week reward loses power, pivots to next lever (social → intrinsic).
📊 Reward Effectiveness Over Time:
Month 1
System: Points + badges (extrinsic)
Effectiveness: 95%
Engagement: High
Month 2
System: Points + badges (same)
Effectiveness: 92%
Engagement: High
Month 3
System: Points + badges (same)
Effectiveness: 78%
Engagement: Medium
Month 4
System: Pivot: social validation + peer comparison
Effectiveness: 88%
Engagement: High
Month 5-6
System: Intrinsic: mastery milestones + autonomy
Effectiveness: 92%
Engagement: High
Reward Fatigue Detection (Early Warning)
8-10
Signal: Engagement drops 15% despite same rewards
Meaning: Reward satiation = habituation
→ Predict pivot date
10-12
Signal: Complaint: "same boring badge"
Meaning: Explicit dissatisfaction
→ Pause current system. Introduce surprise variant.
12-14
Signal: Session completion rate drops
Meaning: Motivation collapse imminent
→ PIVOT NOW. New reward system live.
🔄 Predicted Reward System Transitions:
Month 3
Points (extrinsic) → Peer rank + leaderboard (social)
Trigger: Satiation detected at week 10
Outcome: +10% engagement
Month 6
Leaderboard → Mastery badges + skill unlocks (intrinsic)
Trigger: Peer comparison fatigue
Outcome: Sustained 90%+
✅ Sustained Motivation:
System auto-pivots reward levers BEFORE fatigue kills engagement. Extrinsic → Social → Intrinsic progression. Prevents "month 4 burnout."
