Counterfactual Reasoning Engine v2
Estimate individual causal effects via instrumental variables
Causal Attribution
Uses propensity score matching + instrumental variables to isolate individual treatment effects. Answers: "How much did intervention X cause improvement?"
Actual path taken
Spaced repetition × social learning
92% mastery in 12 weeks
Counterfactual #1
Spaced repetition alone
Predicted 84% mastery (8% gain from social)
Counterfactual #2
Social learning alone
Predicted 73% mastery (19% gain from spacing)
Counterfactual #3
Neither intervention
Predicted 45% mastery (47% total gain)
Methodological Approach
- • Propensity score matching on baseline EF, age, severity
- • Instrumental variable: randomization to game order
- • Difference-in-differences estimation (actual vs predicted)
- • 95% bootstrap CI to quantify uncertainty
Clinical Application
Therapist receives report: "Spaced repetition alone would have achieved 84% — social learning added 8% benefit in your case." Informs treatment optimization.
